Is Friedrich Merz’s Chancellorship Losing Momentum Before it Even Begins?
- Jett James Pruitt
- Apr 21
- 5 min read
Despite Securing a Coalition Agreement with the SPD, Germany’s Sharp Turn to the Right Proves Troublesome for Merz and the CDU.
Article Written by Jett James Pruitt
On April 19, leader of the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) Friedrich Merz posted a video message outlining his party’s vision for Germany: “Our goal is clear. Germany should become economically stronger, safer, fairer, and more modern. We are committed to investing in industry, providing tax relief for small and medium-sized enterprises, and ensuring a reliable energy supply.” Towards the end of the message, Merz emphasized he was determined to “[Make Germany] safer both internally and externally.”
Merz, who is presumed to become the next Chancellor of Germany in early May, has been praised among members of his party for delivering both the CDU to victory in the country’s federal election in February and quickly securing a coalition agreement with the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), which previously led Germany under the leadership of Olaf Scholz.
In a process that historically has taken months to achieve, Merz was able to secure a coalition agreement in a mere 45 days.
As part of the coalition deal (which was finalized on April 9), the CDU obtained control of the chancellorship and six ministries. Meanwhile, the Christian Social Union of Bavaria (CSU) — which shares a permanent alliance with the CDU — was granted direction of three ministries, whereas the SPD agreed to lead seven, including the environment, justice, and urban development departments.
At this time, the German parliament is scheduled to vote on the proposed new administration on May 6, 2025.
To an external observer of German politics, it may seem that the CDU and SPD have momentum and are on the road to forming a stable government in Germany’s Bundestag. French newspaper Le Monde calls it a “clever composition,” while The Economist calls it a bland, but reassuring deal. Yet, there are a number of domestic factors threatening to derail the CDU’s ascension to power, including internal fracturing within the party.
A few days before the coalition deal was announced, a CDU youth organization based in the city of Cologne published an open letter denouncing Merz for compromising with the left-wing SPD:
“Mr. Merz, we believed in your political leadership. We trusted you. And we have fought for you. But now we are asking the question: for what? For a CDU that submits to the left-wing mainstream?” The letter warned “If this course is not corrected immediately, you will not only jeopardize the CDU’s profile –– you will destroy the trust the people and the commitment of its members.”
Johannes Winkel, chair of the Youth Union of the CDU and elected member of the Bundestag, insisted he will vote against the coalition pact with the SPD if CDU leadership does not make an effort to enact stricter migration policies, cut regulations, and eliminate wasteful government spending and bureaucracy. Speaking to the German publication Süddeutsche Zeitung, Winkel stated “If we enter into a coalition without the overdue and promised policy change, the country will suffer massive damage.”
In effect, Merz has already suffered a decline in popularity from conservative German voters before even taking office.
This sudden shift against Merz, especially among young German voters, is further reflected by recent polling which shows that the far-right Alternative for Germany (AFD) party has surpassed the CDU in popularity for the first time.
Earlier this month, Ipsos published a poll asking respondents which party they would support if a national election was held. The survey shows the AFD currently leads the CDU by one percentage point and the SPD by ten points. A separate metric indicates that if a federal election were held today, the AFD would win a plurality of seats (i.e., 173) in the 630-member German Parliament.
In February, the AFD placed second behind the CDU and doubled its share of the popular vote from the 2021 national election. Therefore, while the party is currently outnumbered by its more centrist counterpart in the Bundestag, the AFD is undoubtedly gaining electoral momentum and could very well emerge as the largest political force in Germany within the next five to ten years.
Given this trend, AFD politicians have not hesitated to exploit internal discord within the CDU to their advantage, with party co-chair Tino Chrupalla commenting “What do you actually stand for, Mr. Merz? By now, you have the mRNA of the SPD implanted in you.”
It is important to note that the AFD has drawn sharp condemnation from the international community for its radical platform, with Germany’s domestic intelligence agency labelling the party as a “suspected extremist” group in 2021.
Journalists and politicians have especially criticized the party’s support for Russia amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, hardline stance against immigration (especially from Muslim-majority countries), and outright rejection of Germany’s involvement in both NATO and the European Union. A number of party members have also come under immense scrutiny for comments made relating to the Nazi Party, leading many to allege the organization is a neo-Fascist entity.
Within this context, Merz decided early-on to avoid forming a coalition with the AFD. After immense speculation, party leaders ultimately formed an alliance with the SPD based on their shared pro-EU stance. Not to mention, a CDU-SPD alliance (otherwise known as a ‘Grand Coalition’ in German politics) has been implemented numerous times since German unification, most recently under Angela Merkel.
As of now, the coalition is expected to be ratified by the German parliament, with Merz succeeding Scholz as the country’s chancellor. However, the aforementioned developments reflect the fragility of European politics at a time when far-right populism is on the rise around the world.
It appears centrism, at least for the foreseeable future, is on a downward spiral.
Looking ahead, the next German government faces a number of international challenges, including the threat of U.S. tariffs hindering the country’s economic growth and renewed calls to ramp up defense spending amid America’s potential withdrawal of military and financial assistance from Europe.
For context, Germany is a federal and parliamentary republic, in which state authority is separated between an executive, legislative, and judicial branch. German voters directly elect representatives to the Bundestag, which is comparable to the House of Representatives in the United States.
At the time of this writing, there are 630 seats in the Bundestag, with the CDU and SPD controlling 208 and 120 seats, respectively. Meanwhile, the Bundestrat serves as the representative body of Germany’s regional states collectively called Länder, somewhat similar to the U.S. Senate before the ratification of the 17th amendment.
The Chancellor of Germany is head of the federal government, and serves as commander-in-chief of the country’s armed forces during times of war. Meanwhile, the Federal President of Germany (who is currently Frank-Walter Steinmeier) serves as head of state and represents the nation in diplomatic affairs.
Aside from the CDU, the SPD, and the AFD, other prominent political parties in Germany include the environmentalist Alliance 90/The Greens, the far-left Die Linke, the neoliberal Free Democratic Party (FDP), and the left-conservative BSW.
Only time will tell whether Friedrich Merz can win the trust of the German electorate and navigate an increasingly uncertain geopolitical landscape in the years ahead.
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Jett James Pruitt is a Native American, Pulitzer Prize-nominated author of the bestselling book THROUGH THE EYES OF A YOUNG AMERICAN. He is the founder and editor-in-chief of TheGenZPost.com and a political strategist specializing in Generation Z voter trends. He is currently a B.A. International Politics student at The University of London Institute in Paris. His next book, THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE: What America's Political Parties Must Do To Win Over Generation Z, will be released in major bookstores worldwide in late 2025.
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