The Third Way: Can France Fill the Power Vacuum Emerging in South Asia?

With China and the U.S. Declining in Influence in South Asia, Can France Prevail as the Leading Partner in the Region?

Article Written by Tinahy Ramamonjiarisoa

They say that in every crisis lies opportunity. In that spirit, French President Emmanuel Macron recently completed a week-long tour of South Asia aimed at strengthening his country’s position in the Indo-Pacific region and promoting bilateral collaboration with Vietnam, Indonesia and Singapore in particular. 

The Present Crisis:

Formerly seen as the beacon of the ‘Global South’, China’s grip on the imagination of many post-colonial nations has been wavering over the last decade. This is especially true in the Indo-Pacific region where its aggressive moves in attempting to assert its disputed territorial claims have contributed to it increasingly being seen as a threatening and expansionist power to international observers. 

In reaction, countries such as the Philippines have turned to the United States for help. Indeed, though the Philippines enjoyed temporarily warm relations with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in the 2010s, the latter’s aggressive actions against the former’s sailors (including one incident last June where Philippine soldiers on their way to the Second Thomas Shoal in disputed waters were reportedly intercepted by melee-weapon wielding Chinese counterparts) have since strained their relationship. The Philippines thus gravitated towards the U.S. for increased military cooperation.

Within this context, the U.S. has in recent months experienced a decline in diplomatic capital among its allies and partners.

Though successful in bringing countries to the negotiating table, the Trump administration’s "on and off" tariff threats and unpredictable temperament have put the reliability of the American market and what remains of Pax Americana into question.

Beyond affecting its historic European allies, these actions have put countries like Vietnam — threatened with a 46% tariff rate as Deutsche Welle reports — on edge. Despite the fact that the Trump administration’s tariffs are currently being blocked by the American judiciary, the perception they created of the US in Europe and in Asia remains.

France’s Inherited Position:

France finds itself in a similar predicament to the countries of South Asia. As a fellow Western country, France has strong historic links with the U.S. For example, France heavily exports planes, pharmaceuticals and world-famous luxury goods to the superpower. However, American unpredictability makes their future uncertain.

That said, France is likewise sceptical of the PRC. Though not as antagonistic as the sentiments expressed in the U.S., an undertone of weariness characterises French feelings towards the PRC since the “Chinese Influence Operations” report by the Institut de Recherce Stréguique de l’Ecole Militaire (IRSEM) was released.  

Additionally, France’s trading relationship with China is a delicate point, with Paris worried both about its internal market being flooded by Chinese electric vehicles and China’s decreasing demands for luxury goods.

China’s trade war with the U.S. may lead its companies such as BYD to sell both competitively-priced and qualitative surplus products in Europe, thus outcompeting French manufacturers.

Meanwhile, the slowing Chinese economy and geopolitical tensions decrease the demand for French luxury goods in its internal market by making them both unattainable and undesirable. This has especially affected market confidence in the LVMH group as its sales continue to decline in Asia.

Nevertheless, France has inherited a historical position whose cultural and economic dimensions give it a unique advantage. The French political tradition of Gaullism (named after President Charles de Gaulle) emphasises the country’s independence in relation to global blocs.

Despite the fact that France is nominally part of the ‘Western Bloc’, de Gaulle was averse to dependency on the U.S. and thus on following the country's every move. Though not all following French presidents would identify themselves as ‘Gaullist’, this emphasis on independence has generally been followed throughout the history of the Fifth Republic with France pursuing its own nuclear deterrent, developing its own defence industry, and even vetoing the United Nations (UN) approval of the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

As such, France has the advantage of inheriting a semi-neutral position that might make it a ‘Third Way’ between the PRC and the U.S. This is what President Macron sought to capitalise upon during his visit.

Former Prime Minster Dominique de Villepin expressing France’s opposition to military intervention in Iraq in 2003

Economic Opportunities:

The search for new markets is an essential part of Macron’s visit to South Asia.

With traditional partnerships being reshaped, France is seeking new markets to which it can export its goods in order to diversify its portfolio. This is best illustrated by Macron’s visits to Vietnam and Indonesia. As reported by Les Echos, 14 agreements were signed during the President’s visit to Vietnam and the purchase of 20 new Airbus A330-900 aircraft by VietJet, a Vietnamese airline based in Hanoi, has been confirmed.

The production of these aircraft constitutes a critical part of employment in many European cities, including the southern French town of Toulouse. As such, the purchase sends a reassuring signal to the French and European aeronautical industries in the face of turbulent market conditions.

Additionally, a key, yet seldom mentioned aspect to consider is the long-term potential of Southern Asian countries as trading partners due to their growing consumer class and thus internal markets.

McKinsey projects that 75% of the Vietnamese population will be part of the consumer class by 2030, a 35-point increase from 2021. Such an expansion is the result of Vietnam's impressive economic growth which is generally mirrored by other countries in the region.

As well as market size growth in general, greater purchasing power in South Asia may have particular consequences on consumer behaviour. Non-essential goods such as luxury products are often used by consumers in growing economies to assert their social status, while cultural products tend to flourish with a more prosperous youth.

Both of these demands can be well served by French companies and the promotion of cultural products was indeed at the foreground of bilateral talks between France and Indonesia.

The Southern Asian countries likewise see economic opportunity in the third way due to the possibility of technology and know-how transfers.

The notion of technology and know-how transfers (i.e., the appropriation of methods and means of operating, particularly in production) by developing countries from developed economies was key to the rise of the PRC.

These transfers notably work by having foreign companies, who use particular technologies or whose employees have particular skills, implant themselves in one’s country. Said country can then either imitate and scale the technologies brought to its shores or reap the benefits of the training of its local population in the ways of the transnational company’s production.

After benefiting from the flight of companies from the PRC as a result of the first trade war between China and the U.S., Hanoi seeks to diversify the portfolio of foreign companies on its soil. That is why the French multinational Sanofi’s announcement during Macron’s visit stating it shall start producing vaccines in Vietnam is of paramount importance.

France is furthermore able to offer the states of South Asia the specific sectoral advantage of its atomic know-how. The state-owned company Électricité de France (EDF) is the world leader in civil nuclear technology and in the construction of nuclear plants.

Due to its status as an efficient ‘zero emissions’ energy source, nuclear has become trendy in the last few years with many countries keen to develop the technology for their own use. Increased bilateral cooperation on nuclear technology was a topic in all three of the countries visited by the French President with Singapore and Indonesia explicitly expressing interest in having reactors built on their soil, the latter notably deeming it necessary to meet rising energy demands while cutting carbon emissions. 

Partnerships In The Defence Industry:

Defence-related questions were likewise at the heart of discussions with the South Asian countries seeking to benefit from France’s independent military-industrial complex to boost their own defences. Countries have traditionally had to choose between American and Russian weapons for their armed forces, but these come with a perception of rapprochement or even servitude to the exporting superpower.

France is also unique in its ability to offer qualitative military goods with far less of a subservient connotation for purchasing countries. Of the three visited, the country which seems most enthusiastic about this prospect is Indonesia. Indeed, having already signed an agreement in 2022 which notably involved purchasing several of the famed Rafale fighter-jet, Reuters reports that the country has now signed a preliminary defence pact which may lead to the purchase of additional Rafales as well as French frigates and submarines.

France’s independent military-industrial complex allows non-aligned countries to cooperate with it research and development without having to align themselves with a global superpower.

Such Cooperation was most apparent in Singapore during President Macron’s trip. Indeed, France and Singapore agreed to a defence partnership that would see cooperation on traditional defence technology as well as what the Prime Minister of Singapore, Laurence Wong, called “emerging technologies” in exchange for Singapore supporting French deployments in the Indo-Pacific.

The promotion of Franco-Singaporean bilateral ties to Comprehensive Strategic Partnership status emphasises the long-term commitment of the cooperation between the two states.

This brings us to the sometimes-overlooked point of analysis of France as an Indo-Pacific country. French Polynesia, Wallis and Futuna and New-Caledonia are just three examples of French departments situated in the region.

The latter example has already been of interest to the PRC due to its nickel-rich soil and its strategic position. As such, building strategic alliances in the region is necessary in order to secure its territory. The support of fellow Indo-Pacific nations likewise allows France to project power by facilitating supply-line logistics.

The sale of arms to these partners facilitates the continued production of said arms by partially offsetting the cost of production, thus allowing France to preserve its status as an independent weapons manufacturing country.

France’s Exclusive Economic Zones in the Indo-Pacific sourced at the Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique as of 2023

Like-Minded Partners?

Beyond the empirical questions of security, Macron planted the seed of a working alliance through the French Third Way.

It appears through Macron's multiple speeches that this alliance is held together by a ‘like-mindedness’ vis-à-vis International Law and defined in opposition to the ‘might makes right’ approach to geopolitics.

The first reaction to states preaching about the respect of International Law is usually one of scepticism as they tend to only emphasise it when they are the victims of its transgression.

That said, it seems to currently be in the interest of both France and the South Asian countries to emphasise International Law as they are on the front line of Russian and Chinese expansion respectively. In that regard, Macron took advantage of being invited as a guest speaker at the Shangri-La Dialogue security conference during his visit to Singapore to link both expansionisms and express his gratitude towards Singapore’s actions against Russia after the start of the Russo-Ukrainian war.

France’s political culture also emphasises the convergence of the principles of International Law and multilateralism with the interests of the nation to a great extent with commentators often opposing French multilateralism with the unilateral ‘Anglo-Saxon’ invasion of Iraq in 2003. Backing what Macron calls a “rules-based” order with like-minded partners thus seems to be concordant with both France’s branding and its geopolitical interests, as well as those of its Asian partners. 

Moreover, bringing up the topic of International Law in the Global South invariably evokes the sensitive topic of Israel-Palestine.

This is usually a source of contention, given that Western countries generally sympathise with Israel as both a safe home for Jews and a bastion of Western Democracy, whereas the Global South tends to be sympathetic to the plight of Palestinians whose land they see as colonised. As such, the West tends to emphasise instances where Israel’s adversaries violate International Law, while the Global South tends to emphasise instances of opposing circumstances.

This is especially true of Indonesia, the most populous Muslim country in the world. Though France has historically not been as supportive of Israel as its Western partners, it is yet to officially recognise the State of Palestine and has been perceived in the Global South as giving Israel a blank check in its military operations following the October 7th terrorist attacks.

Such a perception risks hurting France’s brand as a country of balance and thus its potential to lead a geopolitical third-way.

Paris has thus had to send positive signals towards the plight of Palestinians while attempting not to be censorious towards Israel in order to secure its image and perhaps even lay the groundwork for a renewed Middle-East strategy.

During a press conference with Singapore’s Prime Minister, Macron expressed the necessity of recognising a Palestinian state as a “Moral Imperative” and pushed for European states to take a harder stance towards Israel if it continues to prevent humanitarian aid from entering Gaza against the wishes of the UN. He further expressed during his speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue security conference his desire for “mutual recognition” between the Palestinian and Israeli states.

France even managed to get a verbal agreement from Indonesia, a strongly pro-Palestine state, to recognise the state of Israel after Israeli recognition of a Palestinian state. In addition to overcoming the image of a blind supporter of Israel towards one of a balanced actor may open the door for greater cooperation with Arab states in the Middle-East and even make France a mediator in Middle-Eastern affairs.

Conclusion

Through the President’s tour of South Asia, Paris is attempting to find new allies and assert itself as the leader of a ‘third-way’ for countries who do not wish to choose between the global superpowers. This ‘third-way’ is characterised by both enhanced economic and defence cooperation, taking advantage of France’s Gaullist inheritance. It also relies on a certain degree of geopolitical alignment or ‘like-mindedness’ which requires settling difficult questions such as that of attitude towards the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

The latter point necessitates France walk a delicate line and only time will tell whether it is successful in doing so.

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Born in 2005, Tinahy Ramamonjiarisoa has authored a myriad of articles in student publications whose topics range from the political importance of aesthetics to the economic effects of climate regulation. In addition to being vice-president of the University of London Institute in Paris Student Union for academic year 2025-2026, Ramamonjiarisoa founded both the university’s Model United Nations society in his first year and The Thought Forum, a student platform for socio-political discussions dedicated to intellectual diversity, in his second year. 

Having been raised in France, the United Kingdom and Kenya, Ramamonjiarisoa’s analytical outlook is unique in both its eclectic combination of French and Anglo-Saxon intellectual influences and its acknowledgment of both ‘Global North’ and ‘Global South’ perspectives. Indeed, though he first acquired a taste for politics through his interest in the implications of the Belt and Road initiative for Kenya, his final high-school oral exam focused on the impact of European environmental regulations on the continent’s farmers where he successfully highlighted many of the issues that have come to light in the ongoing ‘agricultural crisis’.

Ramamonjiarisoa’s practical political interests mostly centre around questions of defence, security and economic competitiveness in the Indo-Pacific and European regions. That said he is no stranger to current defining debates, taking particular interest in the Burkean philosophical tradition by focusing on how its principles may be used as a lens through which culture may be understood and what political implications such analysis ought to have.