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Why The Presidential Election Polls Are Dead Wrong… Again

The Gen Z Post’s Shocking Prediction for the 2020 Presidential Election.

Editor’s Note: The following prediction is based on empirical data and historical voting patterns; it does not reflect anyone’s personal political views at The Gen Z Post.

As the showdown between former Vice President Joe Biden and incumbent President Donald Trump approaches, many news organizations are predicting the Democratic Party will stand tall on November 3rd.

Prominent television networks such as CNN, MSNBC, and Fox News cite polls that indicate Joe Biden is leading President Trump in several swing states. Yet, after careful evaluation of less media-covered sources, our team sees an opposite trend.

Why are the pollsters getting it wrong?

Because in a never-seen-before phenomena in American history, the vast majority of supporters of one of the two presidential candidates refuse to verbally express support and have it documented “for the record” by strangers.

No matter how one feels politically, one must acknowledge that openly supporting President Trump in 2020 has invited unprecedented challenges.

Many have lost friends. Some have lost jobs. Several have lost spouses. Younger voters have even experienced colleges rescinding acceptance offers based on their political affiliation.

Most Americans would agree that the lack of freedom for all people to openly display their political preferences without repercussion is a real factor in this election cycle.

For example, The New York Post recently highlighted how supporters of the Biden–Harris campaign reported feeling completely comfortable vocalizing their support to pollsters, friends, and family members versus supporters of the Trump-Pence campaign who often felt attacked by those around them.

Moreover, a recent survey conducted by the Cato Institute found that 62% of Americans say that “the political climate these days prevents them from saying things they believe because others might find them offensive.”

Considering the polls were completely erroneous in the 2016 Presidential Election, Democrats should not consider this election a done deal just yet.

To illustrate this point:

On October 18, 2016, The New York Times reported that Hillary Clinton had a 91 percent chance of winning the November 8th presidential election.

That’s right. A 91 percent chance of winning, and a 9 percent chance of losing the election.

And although Clinton had indeed won the popular vote by 2,864,974 votes, it's still only the electoral college win that matters.

So the big question is... How many Americans plan on voting for Trump and Pence in November?

Literally no one knows.

Pollsters are hesitant to reveal evidence suggesting that Trump supporters are either lying about their political affiliation, claiming to be undecided, or refusing to answer polls. Why? Because it would put them out of a job.

Yet nearly every day on the news, there are examples of conservative suppression such as Austin Tong, a Fordham University student who was recently sanctioned by the school for posting his support for the Second Amendment; Samantha Pfefferle who nearly lost her admittance offer to Marquette University after posting a video endorsing President Trump; and David Leatherwood, an LGBTQ Republican, who was fired from a Florida coffee shop over vocalizing his support for the president.

So, what does this mean exactly?

It means that:

From now until November 3rd, anywhere from 20 to 60 percent of Americans will NOT openly disclose who they are voting for to anyone outside of their homes.

For this reason alone, how can any "direct response" voter polls be accurate?

After analyzing key historical voting data (such as the effect of riots on presidential elections) our team predicts the silent majority will be much more concerned with maintaining law and order, strong borders, and preservation of history, versus combating wealth inequality, racial injustice, and the effects of climate change.

For this reason, our electoral college prediction shows a surprise win for the Republican Party. Specifically, 288 electoral votes for Trump versus 250 electoral votes for Biden, despite the popular vote coming in (once again) in the Democratic Party's favor.

What are your thoughts?

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