Read Our Forecast of Which Senate, House, and Gubernatorial Candidates Will Come Out On Top . . . And Why.
Article Written By Jett James Pruitt
The 2022 Midterm Elections may be the second most important election cycle of our lifetimes. With inflation, war, crime, abortion, education, insurrection, and gender issues making their way into daily conversations around the breakfast table, no one knows for certain just how divided America is at this very moment . . . but we can certainly all feel it.
For the first time in modern history, a significant but unknown percentage of Republican voters are refusing to voice their political opinions outside of their homes — citing distrust of the government and fears of "being canceled" in the workplace.
For this reason, we believe there is a whopping 7 to 9-point margin of error across most national polls, undercounting the number of independent voters who will side with Republicans in states with extremely tight races. More importantly,
The number one factor that will determine the outcome of this election is the AGE of voters who actually turn up on November 8th.
Why? Because one's age typically determines the order in which a voter ranks the importance of key issues on the ballot.
For example, voters over the age of 50 will be much more concerned with looming recession and rising inflation than reproductive rights and student loan debt forgiveness. Voters under the age of 25 will typically reverse the ranking, prioritizing abortion rights and climate reform over concerns about the economy.
In addition, some pollsters claim that older American voters tend to subconsciously lean towards masculine leaders in times of fear (looming war, economic volatility, etc.) and towards feminine leaders in time of peace and recovery.
Therefore, in extremely tight races, the perceived masculinity or femininity (i.e. the boldness/fearlessness or caring/nurturing nature of the candidate, regardless of sex) may impact the outcome among older voters, whereas younger generations do not appear to carry this bias into the polling booth.
Therefore, if Gen Z and Millennials fail to visit the polls in full force during the Midterms, Gen X and Baby Boomers will turn the House and Senate Red just by showing up.
Senator Raphael Warnock (D-GA)
Either way, the 2022 Midterms will be the harbinger of the pivotal 2024 Presidential Election, which may be the most important election of our lifetimes.
It will be the first chapter of a specific course for America that will lean prominently in one direction or another starting January 20, 2025.
Exactly what will that direction be? Only time will tell. But for now, we'll take a look at the most interesting races in the 2022 Midterms:
The Senate
35 Seats Up For Grabs
Projected Winners Listed in BOLD
Our Prediction:
Republicans Will Win The Majority
51 Republicans / 49 Democrats
Alabama
Will Boyd (D) vs. Katie Britt (R)
Alaska
Patricia Chesbro (D) vs. Lisa Murkowski (R-Incumbent)
Arizona
Mark Kelley (D-Incumbent) vs. Blake Masters (R)
Arkansas
Natalie James (D) vs. John Boozman (R-Incumbent)
California
Alex Padilla (D-Incumbent) vs. Mark Meuser (R)
Colorado
Michael Bennet (D-Incumbent) vs. Joe O'Dea (R)
Connecticut
Richard Blumenthal (D-Incumbent) vs. Leora Levy (R)
Florida
Val Demings (D) vs. Marco Rubio (R-Incumbent)
Georgia
Raphael Warnock (D-Incumbent) vs. Herschel Walker (R)
Hawaii
Brian Schatz (D-Incumbent) vs. Bob McDermott
Idaho
David Roth (D) vs. Mike Crapo (R-Incumbent)
Illinois
Tammy Duckworth (D-Incumbent) vs. Kathy Salvi (R)
Indiana
Thomas McDermott (D) vs. Todd Young (R-Incumbent)
Iowa
Michael Franken (D) vs. Chuck Grassley (R-Incumbent)
Kansas
Mark Holland (D) vs. Jerry Moran (R-Incumbent)
Kentucky
Charles Booker (D) vs. Rand Paul (R-Incumbent)
Louisiana
Gary Chambers (D) vs. John Kennedy (R-Incumbent)
Maryland
Chris Van Hollen (D-Incumbent) vs. Chris Chaffee (R)
Missouri
Trudy Valentine (D) vs. Eric Schmitt (R)
North Carolina
Cheri Lynn Beasley (D) vs. Ted Budd (R)
New Hampshire
Maggie Hassan (D-Incumbent) vs. Don Bolduc (R)
Nevada
Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Incumbent) vs. Adam Laxalt (R)
North Dakota
Katrina Christensen (D) vs. John Hoeven (R-Incumbent)
New York
Chuck Schumer (D-Incumbent) vs. Joe Pinion (R)
Ohio
Tim Ryan (D) vs. J.D. Vance (R)
Oklahoma #1
Madison Horn (D) vs. James Lankford (R-Incumbent)
Oklahoma #2
Kendra Horn (D) vs. Markwayne Mullin (R)
Oregon
Ron Wyden (D-Incumbent) vs. Jo Rae Perkins (R)
Pennsylvania
John Fetterman (D) vs. Mehmet Oz (R)
South Carolina
Krystle Matthews (D) vs. Tim Scott (R-Incumbent)
South Dakota
Brian Bengs (D) vs. John Thune (R-Incumbent)
Utah
Mike Lee (R) vs. Evan McMullin (I)
Vermont
Peter Welch (D) vs. Gerald Malloy (R)
Washington
Patty Murray (D-Incumbent) vs. Tiffany Smiley (R)
Wisconsin
Mandela Barnes (D) vs. Ron Johnson (R-Incumbent)
Early Voting Begins on Monday in Florida.
The House
435 Seats Up For Grabs
Our Prediction:
Republicans Will Win The Majority
221 Republicans / 214 Democrats
Key Races to Watch:
Georgia's 14th District
Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Incumbent) will win back her seat against Marcus Flowers (D) signaling to the Democratic party that MAGA candidates are not going away anytime soon.
California's 27th District
If Mike Garcia (R-Incumbent) is somehow re-elected in this solid blue territory, the Democrats will certainly need a new strategy to win back the public in 2024. But our bet is that abortion will the key topic in this district, making Christy Smith (D) the winner.
Iowa's 3rd District
Cindy Axne (D-Incumbent) will be ousted by Zach Nunn (R) in a quickly changing territory that includes Des Moines.
Virginia's 7th District
Abigail Spanberger (D-Incumbent) will be replaced by contender Yesil Vega (R) due to major parent concerns about education in her district. Vega is part of a larger trend of conservative Latinx candidates who strike a chord with voters who fled from communist/dictatorship countries.
Candidate for Arizona Governor, Kari Lake (R)
The Race for Governor
36 Seats Up For Grabs
Our Prediction:
Republicans Will Win The Majority
29 Republicans vs. 21 Democrats
Arizona
Trump supporter, Kari Lake (R) will beat Katie Hobbs (D) by at least 5 points, showcasing Arizona's return to Red.
Florida
With a thousand new residents moving from Blue states to Florida each day since April 2020, Ron DeSantis (R-Incumbent) will beat Charlie Christ (D) by more than 10 points, solidifying his position as the 2024 Presidential Candidate runner-up to Trump.
Georgia
Sadly, voters will not reward Stacey Abrams (D) for her perseverance and dedication to the state by giving her a win over Brian Kemp (R-Incumbent). Her important role in politics is probably best served at the national level, such as serving as DNC National Chairperson or similar.
Michigan
Incumbent Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) will surprisingly withstand the Red Wave seen in other states, making her a possible Biden replacement for the 2024 Presidential election. However, this will not be the last time contender Tudor Dixon (R) hits the national stage.
Pennsylvania
This open seat may be the best litmus test for the rest of the country. If MAGA Republican candidate Doug Mastriano somehow pulls off a win in this popular purple state, it will create a momentum to strengthen the GOP's bid for the White House in 2024. However, we believe Josh Shapiro (D) will be the victor.
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Election day is Tuesday, November 8, 2022. Be sure to get out and vote.
Born in 2005, Jett James Pruitt is a Native American, Pulitzer Prize-nominated author of the book Through The Eyes of a Young American. He is the founder and editor-in-chief of TheGenZPost.com, and is a political strategist specializing in Generation Z voting trends. His next book The Progressive Conservative is due in bookstores late next year.