How The GOP's Potential Midterm Loss Could Destroy The Party In Less Than A Decade.
Article Written by Jett James Pruitt
With early voting for the 2022 Midterm Elections currently underway, mainstream pollsters have concluded that the once forecasted Red Wave may be nothing more than a Red Splash — and that's if they're lucky.
With rising crime rates, economic worries, and Putin's credible threats of nuclear war, just how on earth did the Republican Party potentially blow their chance to regain the House and Senate when it should have been a slam-dunk election year?
The answer is simple, and goes way beyond Trump, his mounting legal woes, and every other controversial Republican making headlines daily:
The GOP unfortunately championed the wrong voting issues at the wrong time, and no one within the Republican Party seems to acknowledge just how damaging this strategy will be long-term.
Today, Democrats control 50 seats in the Senate (with Vice President Kamala Harris granting majority status) and 221 seats in the House of Representatives. Given the DNC's small margin of power, Republican strategists are hopeful the GOP will recapture the House and Senate on November 8.
In some ways, Republican optimism is substantiated prima facie.
According to a recent Reuter/Ipsos Poll, only 39 percent of American voters approve of Joe Biden’s performance as President. Galvanized by issues such as 40-year-high inflation, soaring homicide rates, critical race theory, and supply-chain shortages caused by the Russo-Ukrainian War, hardcore conservatives are guaranteed to turn out next month.
However, this may not be enough.
Current polls suggest that Democrats received a surge of support after the Supreme Court released its Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision on June 24. In the case, the Court determined that access to abortion is not a constitutional right, but an issue for states to decide, overturning a decades-old legal precedent established by Roe v. Wade (1973).
There's no doubt, the Dobbs decision is the single biggest blow against the Republican Party's chances of winning this year’s midterm elections.
As reported by The Economist, the number of people registering to vote increased by 10 percent after the draft decision was leaked on May 2 — the majority of which were women.
More importantly, a September NPR/PBS News Hour/Marist Poll found that access to abortion was the second most important issue to voters, following inflation. And if the Kansas Abortion Referendum serves as a bellwether to where most voters stand on this issue, Republicans are in serious trouble this November.
Add this response to a year where there have been more than 500 mass shootings in the U.S. — with horrifying images of Uvalde, Texas still fresh in the minds of voters — the Republican Party's resistance to banning AR-15 style assault weapons will be another blow to their ability to sweep in November.
Pennsylvania Senate Candidates (L) Dr. Mehmet Oz and (R) John Fetterman
This is evidenced by GOP candidates struggling in races they should have no problem winning. For example, The Hill recently reported that Democratic Candidate John Fetterman is leading his Republican opponent Dr. Mehmet Oz by five points.
Meanwhile, Democrat Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes is leading incumbent Republican Senator Ron Johnson by one point in Wisconsin. And in Georgia, Republican nominee Hershel Walker is losing favor against incumbent Democrat Senator Raphael Warnock after allegations he paid for an abortion several years ago.
Even Democratic candidate Val Demings is gaining serious momentum in Florida against incumbent Republican Senator Marco Rubio, who's strange fundraising email campaign consistently reinforces his fear of not being able to defeat her.
In other words, Republicans are clearly fumbling the ball at the one-yard line. But the consequences of losing this November could be potentially catastrophic for the future of the party.
If Democrats retain their current majority in the House, and flip Wisconsin and Florida in the Senate, they will possess 52 seats of power that will dethrone Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Krysten Sinema (D-AZ) as the stubborn gatekeepers of left-leaning legislation.
On October 5, Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) clearly reinforced this on MSNBC's The Lawrence O'Donnell Show when she stated that the only thing Democrats need to do this November is to hold on to their seats in the House and gain two seats in the Senate in order to enact key legislation.
If the scenario above were to occur, Democrats could eliminate the filibuster, giving them the power to enact changes that would make it extremely difficult for Republicans to win future elections. In short, the following events could lead to the extinction of the Republican Party in less than a decade.
The Four Horsemen of the Republican Apocalypse
The Four Horsemen From The Bible's Book of Revelation
#1 - If Congress adds Washington, D.C. and Puerto Rico as new states. Over the past few years, the movement to admit Washington D.C. to the Union has garnered national support. More than 86 percent of D.C. voters favored making the city a state during a 2016 city-wide referendum. This idea materialized in January 2021, when Democrat Congresswoman Eleanor Holmes Norton introduced the Washington, D.C. Admission Act (H.R. 51). The bill passed the House, but hit a dead end in the Senate after Joe Manchin announced his opposition to the measure last year. If Democrats win two more Senate seats this November, H.R. 51 will certainly resurface. Puerto Rico also has similar support in Democratic circles, particularly in light of the failed infrastructure highlighted by recent hurricanes.
# 2 - If Congress packs the Supreme Court. Senate and House Democrats have already introduced legislation to expand the number of Justices from nine to 13. Since the Constitution does not dictate the specific number of justices on the Court, the Biden administration created a 36-member commission to review the proposed changes. Despite recent polling showing that only 26 percent of Americans support the idea, appointing four new justices during the last two years of Biden's presidency would certainly end the short reign of the Trump-era conservative court.
#3 - If Congress abolishes the Electoral College. As far-fetched as this may seem, more than 700 proposals to reform or eliminate the electoral college have been introduced in Congress since 1800. Technological advances now make it more feasible for a popular vote to be weighed more heavily than electoral votes. This would be a major disadvantage to Republicans, who haven't won the presidential popular vote since 2004.
#4 - If Congress lowers the voting age to 16. Grace Meng (D-NY) recently introduced legislation in the House to replace language in the 26th Amendment that would lower the voting age by two years. Given that countries such as Scotland, Wales, Argentina, and Brazil already allow 16-year-olds to vote, this would not be a radical idea. According to a 2020 Politico poll, only 18 percent of Gen Z identifies as Conservative, making this new voting group a guaranteed crop of fresh Democratic voters.
With this much at stake, Republican leadership needs to take a very careful look at where the party stands on two divisive issues: restricting abortion rights and banning assault weapons. The cost of winning these two battles in the short-term may lead to a series of events that could potentially end The GOP as we know it.
It's time for Republicans to listen to the American people and take two small steps to the left.
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Born in 2005, Jett James Pruitt is a Native American, Pulitzer Prize-nominated author of the book Through The Eyes of a Young American. He is the founder and editor-in-chief of TheGenZPost.com, and is a political strategist specializing in Generation Z voting trends. His next book The Progressive Conservative is due in bookstores late next year.