The Pruitt Rundown: Key U.S. Senate Races to Watch
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With the November Midterm Elections Approaching, Political Analysts Are on Edge as Which Party Will Control the Senate by January 2027
Article Written by Jett James Pruitt
The biennial battle for Congress is far from over.
On a national basis, President Donald Trump is experiencing a loss of support among the general public, with an Economist/YouGov poll conducted between July 3 and July 6 indicating 35 percent of U.S. adults approve of his administration, whereas 61 percent disapprove. Historically, the party of an incumbent President loses its majority in either one or both congressional chambers throughout their term, with Republicans securing the House of Representatives in 2022 and Senate in 2024 under Joe Biden’s term.
As of this writing, the GOP controls 53 Senate seats (with South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster appointing Darline Graham Nordone to fill her late brother’s seat), while the Democrats de facto hold on to 47 (with Senators Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine officially remaining independent). Therefore, the keys to American power will be decided by a mere three races.
With this in mind, here are the most crucial Senate races to watch until November 3, 2026.
Maine
Following Graham Platner’s withdrawal from the race in light of a sexual assault allegation from a former girlfriend, the Maine Democratic Party is scheduled to select a new nominee on July 25 via a statewide convention. Meanwhile, Republican Senator Susan Collins, who has been in office since 1997, is facing pressure in the polls. A Fox News survey indicates Collins recently had a minimal edge over Platner prior to his suspension, gaining 50 percent support to her former opponent’s 47 percent. Generally described as a moderate, Collins has a solid chance to keep her seat for the next six years — but certainly not without a fight.
Michigan
Michigan’s Senate race embodies the ideological schism among Democrats regarding the United States’ relationship with Israel. Currently, the Democratic primary is a tight contest between Abdul El-Sayed, widely described as the most left-wing candidate in the race, and Haley Stevens, who has been endorsed by AIPAC and is viewed as a centrist figure.
Meanwhile, former Congressman and law enforcement officer Mike Rogers is deemed the presumptive Republican nominee. He narrowly lost the 2024 Michigan Senate race to Elissa Slotkin.
Ohio
The contest in the Buckeye State involves Republican Jon Husted, appointed by Governor Mike DeWine following J.D. Vance’s inauguration as Vice President, and former Senator Sherrod Brown. The Cook Political Report considers the race to be a ‘tossup’ as of April 13, with various polls showing neck-and-neck competition between the two nominees. Political analysts are especially interested in the outcome of this election, as it consists of two candidates with extensive experience in the Senate and serves as a precursor for how “battleground states” such as Ohio will swing in the next presidential election.
Alaska
Incumbent Republican Senator Dan S. Sullivan is seeking reelection for a third term. While he faces a crowded field of competitors — with media outlets especially drawing attention to a former U.S. Forest Service employee sharing the same name — Sullivan is largely expected to qualify for the general election following the ranked-choice voting primary on August 18. Meanwhile, former Congresswoman Mary Peltola is the most prominent Democratic candidate, and viewed as the most formidable challenger to Sullivan’s candidacy. A New York Times/Siena University poll conducted between June 15 and June 29 shows Sullivan leading Peltola by a mere two percentage points.
Overall, pundits are divided as to which party will emerge victorious. David Plouffe, a senior advisor to Kamala Harris’ 2024 Presidential Campaign, offered a pessimistic prediction for the Democrats, writing in a New York Times op-ed that his party “had no credible path to sustained control of the Senate.” Meanwhile, veteran strategist James Carville asserted to Fox News personality Kayleigh McEnany in January that the Democrats will “wipeout” Republicans, gaining as many as 45 seats in the House and carrying the Senate.
While the results of individual Senate elections remain unknown, one thing is abundantly clear: America’s political parties are ready for a fight.
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Jett James Pruitt is a Native American, Pulitzer Prize-nominated author of the bestselling book THROUGH THE EYES OF A YOUNG AMERICAN. He is the founder and editor-in-chief of TheGenZPost.com and a political strategist specializing in Generation Z voter trends. He is currently a B.A. International Politics student at The University of London Institute in Paris. His next book, THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE: What America's Political Parties Must Do To Win Over Generation Z, will be released in major bookstores worldwide early 2027.
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